What Recession?

[AndyP & Lenore]

Don't want to turn the light-hearted NMS into a political war field. But does anyone else think that the continued talk by the media about an impending "recession" is just going to make things worse?:confused:

I'm not saying if they didn't talk about it, it wouldn't happen. But do you find yourself talking yourself out of making medium to long term purchases just because there's lots of talk in the media about an impending recession?:confused:

It's starting to p!ss me off, quite frankly.:mad:

A.:(

[Craig]

it's only a recession for you if you feel it... to be honest, if you are in paid employment which is fairly secure, it won't affect you, at least that's what I think.

I don't see how someone talking about it, will make it happen for me or Jude. :confused:

I am not taking any precautions re this impending recession, and if anything living life they way I want regardless of the scare monkeys.. :cool:

and yes, it does piss you off the way the media hype it up. :(

[FergusM]

Well could be a major one in my house hold...

- My job is at risk, semiconductors never a stable place and they are selling factory where I work with no guarantees of anything.

- Wife works for a company that works for NHS...all contracts going "in house" so she might be out a job, might end up just working direct for NHS for less $$ and no company car.

You'll see the first signs of either hitting when the mini gets sold :(

[Craig]

Well could be a major one in my house hold...

- My job is at risk, semiconductors never a stable place and they are selling factory where I work with no guarantees of anything.

- Wife works for a company that works for NHS...all contracts going "in house" so she might be out a job, might end up just working direct for NHS for less $$ and no company car.

You'll see the first signs of either hitting when the mini gets sold :(

Sorry it's looking a bit bleak for you Fergus, hope you don't think my comments were insensitive, cos that was not my intention, just how I see it. :)

hope things pan out OK, I've got an exhaust in my garage with your name on it.. :cool:

[FergusM]

Occhh...sure things will work out...I agree mostly with the sentiment that media are talking themselves into things.

If anyone hears of someone needing a project manager please let me know ;) Already looking for something more stable as I believe it is easier to get a job while in one.

Exhaust will have to wait a wee while :(

[Sheilz]

Dont know about a recession but whatever it is there are casualties in ABZ with a serious slashing of support services to the needy and vulnerable. Its not good with jobs in the traditionally safe public sector being cut.

I think there will always be super cautious individuals who will be react to the media but dont think the majority do until its hitting their own pockets. Think an increase in interest rates would have a greater impact on public spending. Can see how it bugs you though. If I felt my pocket being squeezed (more than it is) its things like trips to the cinema and stuff that would go first.

[AndyP & Lenore]

Dont know about a recession but whatever it is there are casualties in ABZ with a serious slashing of support services to the needy and vulnerable. Its not good with jobs in the traditionally safe public sector being cut.

I think there will always be super cautious individuals who will be react to the media but dont think the majority do until its hitting their own pockets. Think an increase in interest rates would have a greater impact on public spending. Can see how it bugs you though. If I felt my pocket being squeezed (more than it is) its things like trips to the cinema and stuff that would go first.

There's no doubt that's the crux of my concern Shielz. Entertainment spending is one of the first "luxuries" to go. But my main point is that the media seem to be doing their best to talk us all into a recession, when in fact, one isn't currently present.

For a few decades now successive governments have been pushing as many public sector industries to become more commercialised, which ultimately leaves them (and their employees) exposed to the risk of a fluctuating turnover. However, it's a sad day when the needy and vulnerable are treated almost like a discontinued product due to a lack of resources to further the development of a brand.

A.:(

[duncan]

Better to have news programmes cover stories like this, than some of those non-entities that are "celebrities" being used as news stories.

Plus, if it wasn't covered, then some people would be quick enough to complain that no-one ever told them about the financial turmoil.

Throw in the fact that the nation hasn't been saving, its been living the high life on cheap credit for the last 10 years, is it any wonder that people are now thinking about just what they're spending?

[Sheilz]

Can see your point entirely when its your livelihood at stake but I agree with Duncan too. The public do need to know - forewarned is to be forearmed. I prefer the news to focus on things that matter rather than on the latest antics of some overpaid so-called celeb out for more publicity. I couldn't care less about those kind of people.
Its pretty short sighted of our civic leaders though cutting services since the long term cost of no therapeutic input to many of the kids who are going to be affected will far exceed the short term saving. And as for the old people - its a damned disgrace.

[AndyP & Lenore]

Better to have news programmes cover stories like this, than some of those non-entities that are "celebrities" being used as news stories.

Plus, if it wasn't covered, then some people would be quick enough to complain that no-one ever told them about the financial turmoil.

Throw in the fact that the nation hasn't been saving, its been living the high life on cheap credit for the last 10 years, is it any wonder that people are now thinking about just what they're spending?

Fair comments Duncan. I realise it has to be covered, I just wish they wouldn't refer to it like it's a foregone conclusion.

A.:(

[Sheilz]

Fair comments Duncan. I realise it has to be covered, I just wish they wouldn't refer to it like it's a foregone conclusion.

A.:(


That's true as well coz am I right in thinking that interest rates are coming down? That's good news for all of us. Might give us all enough in our pockets for a trip to the flicks to celebrate;):D:D:D

[duncan]

Its pretty short sighted of our civic leaders though cutting services since the long term cost of no therapeutic input to many of the kids who are going to be affected will far exceed the short term saving. And as for the old people - its a damned disgrace.

The cutbacks to the Fire Service are the one that just shows how bad this country has got.

These guys risk their lives to save others. Now the powers that be are cutting back. This effects everyone - Old, young, rich, poor. If you need assistance you want them yesterday.

If the country can't afford a proper emergency service - there is trouble with the economy.

[AndyP & Lenore]

That's true as well coz am I right in thinking that interest rates are coming down? That's good news for all of us. Might give us all enough in our pockets for a trip to the flicks to celebrate;):D:D:D

And I can't think of a better cinema to spend that money than ........ :D :D :D

<<<Wanders off mumbling something about Bonnie Scotland moaning last time I posted commercially about our cinema.:rolleyes:

A.:D

[AndyP & Lenore]

The cutbacks to the Fire Service are the one that just shows how bad this country has got.

These guys risk their lives to save others. Now the powers that be are cutting back. This effects everyone - Old, young, rich, poor. If you need assistance you want them yesterday.

If the country can't afford a proper emergency service - there is trouble with the economy.

And that is closer to home than I'd like. The closest fire station to my house has shut. Building sold off to a land developer. Melrose Fire station was a single tender station staffed by retained firefighters only, but provided invaluable cover to Melrose and Tweedbank. To be fair, as I live in Tweedbank, we're probably more like half way between Melrose and Galashiels station - and Gala station is manned 24hrs. But I know any time we've had a AFAA (Automatic Fire Alarm Activation) in the cinema both Gala tenders and the Melrose boys are called out. Luckily we've never needed them. But you never do need them until you find they're not there.:rolleyes: :(

A.:D

[Scottie]

I don't know if there will be one or not.

I personally think re jobs etc: there is no job secure anymore the time of having a "job for life" is way way in the past. Companies nowadays are always changing things restructure - out sourcing - cutbacks or being taken over etc etc. never mind a recession.

People are saving less I think on average people are saving £50 less currently. It's all different today with younger people I think:confused: I started saving when I was 17 my parents made sure I saved saved saved and it has been with me ever since save save save.

The cost of living is high
with food prices up- gas prices up - Electricity prices up and fuel prices at the highest only to rise more.

I don't know the answer on how and if people should live more cautious in case there is a recession and then more job losses each to their own as long as I'm alright.;)

[Scottie]

well do you think a recession is round the corner?? or is it starting hit us now with the downturn in the international economy. The company I work for at the moment sales internationally are at an all time low.

The $ at an all time high for oil which (will remain from here on in) we will never know again what cheap fuel actually was. excise duty to increase by 2ppl. Never mind that for oil central heating what are you paying something like 68ppl so for a 1000litres thats £680 for what 2 months fuel supply.

The price of food now is frankly shocking have you seen the price for decent breast of chicken, never mind bread or milk.

Today I heard that Superfast are pulling out of Roysth :ragin::ragin:

People are going to start changing the way they live, they have no choice.:argh:

[AndyP & Lenore]

Cheers Fi. Was feeling a bit down anyway. Now I'm off to see of my shotgun has any cartridges in it.

A.:shut up:

[AeroJonny]

I honestly feel like the world's beginning to crumble...very depressing :(

[Gismo]

And I can't think of a better cinema to spend that money than ........ :D :D :D

<<<Wanders off mumbling something about Bonnie Scotland moaning last time I posted commercially about our cinema.:rolleyes:
A.:D:yawn: if you look back far enough you can see a definite trend in the oil industry recession occurrence, typically every 10 years there is a significant downturn.
Note, not a reduction in oil price, but, significantly the major companies tighten their belts a wee bit.
As for the media hype, that's all it is, but, we need some kind of warning, sadly it just gets hammered down our throats until it becomes a reality.
Most newspapers always like to say they brought us the news first, hence the constant reporting of the obvious stories

[Craig]

well due to the increases in costs of heating, lighting, petrol, food etc, I have had effectively a pay cut over the last 2 years... :ragin:

it's even worse working for a local authority as they want to keep all cost of living rises down to the bare minimum (ie 2.25% last year)... it's beginning to cause me to change my habits... :ragin: This government is slowly but surely managing to change the way we live (albeit the richer are getting richer)... :mad::mad::mad:

[Scottie]

:yawn: if you look back far enough you can see a definite trend in the oil industry recession occurrence, typically every 10 years there is a significant downturn.
Note, not a reduction in oil price, but, significantly the major companies tighten their belts a wee bit.
As for the media hype, that's all it is, but, we need some kind of warning, sadly it just gets hammered down our throats until it becomes a reality.
Most newspapers always like to say they brought us the news first, hence the constant reporting of the obvious stories

Certainly in the downstream part of the industry there has been some major changes in the oil industry but I don't think that has anything to do with the price of oil. Upstream well I'm not sure, in the past 30 years that I know of it has always been the money making machine and the place to be, so if our saying BS you are noticing a recession in that part of the industry then that is worrying.

Currently the demand for oil out strips supply and the cost to get it out of the ground is the highest it's ever been hence the high price.

Our government can't control the price of oil yes they can take out the excise duty but they need to tax us in some other way.

If they had not spent so much money on taking us to Iraq and keeping us in Afganistan then perhaps the country would not be in a deficit to a tune 40 billion or whatever it is. Just imagine instead of spending the money on a war most of us didn't want they could have spent that money here in the UK.

As for media hype you don't need media hype to tell you about rocketing prices you just need to take a trip to the supermarket, buy your petrol on the way return home and take a look at the utility bills this just my opinion and I hope I'm wrong but times are a changing.

[Scottie]

I don't want to sound all Miss doom and gloom:) but my point in posting to the thread is that since it was started in Feb 2008 and now just 3 months later look at the cost of living how much has is risen.

Ok at the moment maybe it's not so bad for single people, middle age couples, couples wihtout children and young couples just starting out in life (which is what most of us on this board are )

but it's the family with the kids that go out and spend the money this is where it is going to hit and hit hard if this group change the way they have to live and stop going out and spending money then it will affect the rest of us.IMO.

[euan]

I think it is getting worse for the majority though. Certainly at the moment (and it's not just because of paying for the wedding!) we're being careful. Fuel costs are mental and instead of £53 quid to fill my car it's now £65. Now, I don't work in public sector and so pay rises are not mandatory, so my wages are not keeping up with the costs of food, bills, mortgage etc, so yes - we are being more careful than we were 3 months ago.

I've been looking at this and trying to work out the best way to deal with it. One option is to leave the country, I'm fed up with the traffic, media and news coverage of nothing stories, cost of living, and perhaps the main reason, peoples attitudes to each other. Nobody smiles, customer service is dead, everybody is too wrapped up in their own lives and worries and it's getting to be a miserable place! The only problem is, it's the same everywhere! Ah well.

[Burple]

I've been looking at this and trying to work out the best way to deal with it. One option is to leave the country, I'm fed up with the traffic, media and news coverage of nothing stories, cost of living, and perhaps the main reason, peoples attitudes to each other. Nobody smiles, customer service is dead, everybody is too wrapped up in their own lives and worries and it's getting to be a miserable place! The only problem is, it's the same everywhere! Ah well.

To be honest.. this article (http://www.cracked.com/article_15231_7-reasons-21st-century-making-you-miserable.html) has it pretty much spot on. It's just a shame that the lowest common denominator in every society seems to set the norm.. and hardly anyone will read that article.. and these days even less people will understand it.. and have the capacity to actually do something about it. :eyes up:
You make your own happiness!

[AndyP & Lenore]

To be honest.. this article (http://www.cracked.com/article_15231_7-reasons-21st-century-making-you-miserable.html) has it pretty much spot on. It's just a shame that the lowest common denominator in every society seems to set the norm.. and hardly anyone will read that article.. and these days even less people will understand it.. and have the capacity to actually do something about it. :eyes up:
You make your own happiness!

Burple, that article makes for very interesting reading. Much of it I completely agree with. But it is notable that over the past 15 years of running the cinema in Galashiels we've had over 1.4million admissions - sometimes I feel like I've served every one of them - and I have to say, hand on heart, I haven't seen any disintegration of society. I haven't witnessed any degradation of social skills of the kids or the adults. Yes, I occasionally see them sitting during the ads and trailers playing with their DS's or texting their mates. But in this social setting, there is still social interacting going on. So, while that article makes for interesting reading, I think it may be a bit of a generalisation, rather than a true reflection of society. Just IMHO.:thumbs up:

A.:D

[AndyP & Lenore]

OK. A few months on. And are we any nearer to the "recession"?

IMHO, no. Still. Yes, costs have risen. Food is much more expensive, fuel is ridiculously expensive. We're lucky that we are, relatively speaking, fairly low mileage drivers, so the full cost of the fuel price hike has not really bitten too hard for us yet. But the truth here is that we are still not seeing the kind of bust recession like we saw in the late 80's, early 90's. Each street does not have entire rows of houses with For Sale boards erected, many of which placed on the market by the lender after repossession. Leisure spending (and I'm not just talking cinema) is still high, and that is one of the first things to go when the purse strings are tightened.

I'm not saying it's not coming, but I genuinely still think the media are stuffing this "credit crunch/impending recession/credit crisis" down our throats because it makes "good" news. Not interesting news, or even to a certain extent factual news, but it makes easy news, news that's easy to sell to their audience.

But here's a question for you.... if the news the media are stuffing down our throats is soooo bad, and the economy is in such a bad state, and prices have risen to unmanageable levels..... how come we're still buying the same, we're still spending the same, we're still driving the same (has anyone here ditched their car for public transport today), and we're not all having our houses repossessed?

A.

[euan]

OK. A few months on. And are we any nearer to the "recession"?

IMHO, no. Still. Yes, costs have risen. Food is much more expensive, fuel is ridiculously expensive. We're lucky that we are, relatively speaking, fairly low mileage drivers, so the full cost of the fuel price hike has not really bitten too hard for us yet. But the truth here is that we are still not seeing the kind of bust recession like we saw in the late 80's, early 90's. Each street does not have entire rows of houses with For Sale boards erected, many of which placed on the market by the lender after repossession. Leisure spending (and I'm not just talking cinema) is still high, and that is one of the first things to go when the purse strings are tightened.

I'm not saying it's not coming, but I genuinely still think the media are stuffing this "credit crunch/impending recession/credit crisis" down our throats because it makes "good" news. Not interesting news, or even to a certain extent factual news, but it makes easy news, news that's easy to sell to their audience.

But here's a question for you.... if the news the media are stuffing down our throats is soooo bad, and the economy is in such a bad state, and prices have risen to unmanageable levels..... how come we're still buying the same, we're still spending the same, we're still driving the same (has anyone here ditched their car for public transport today), and we're not all having our houses repossessed?

A.

Part of the reason we're all keeping our houses is that interest rates are pretty much what they were and haven't jumped into the 8-15% range. People are buying less houses - in London you could have sold flat in a week last year, but now it's nearer 3 months as there are less buyers.

I've not ditched the car for public transport, but we do use the missus car more than mine now as it's does better MPG. And public transport is expensive compared to driving (even with petrol costs) so that's not an incentive either.

[AndyP & Lenore]

All solid points euan.

And I seem to remember a news report on this the other day (one of the few balanced reports), saying that although house prices are dropping like stones, they are still higher than they were 3 years ago. And repossessions are not the way they were last time there was a recession because most of us have moved onto capital and interest mortgages. And that's because of the last recession which crashed the stock market and wiped out all the value of the endowments. I speak from bitter experience.:ragin:

A.

[Sheilz]

I dont think we're in a full blown recession - yet! My mortgage came down :yes nod: which came as a bit of a surprise but other costs are just hellish. I use a lot of fuel which is hitting my pocket very hard and because Aberdeen Cooncil are in such a mess and no more forward of sorting out the single status agreement than they were two years ago I haven't had a pay rise for two years. That really p*sses me off. I'm lucky in as much as there are two incomes in the house but really feel for some of my colleagues who are on their own or are the main earner. Our clients are financially better off than we are:argh: and that's them that dont and wont ever have a job though some of them do participate in private enterprises.

[Jude]

I'm somewhere in the middle of this one. Craig and I are in the relatively safe zone when it comes to employment although nothing comes with a lifetime guarantee. However in my line of work you see what happens to the kids who are stuck in mainstream schools because the government are saving money closing the special schools. I've also seen first hand the state of the local nursing homes and they're not pretty. That said it would be nice if the media could occasionally find something we're getting right to write about. We only get one chance with this life and I'm not spending it waiting to be skint. :computer:

[illegalhunter]

Wh Malcom paid off over 100 drivers 2 weeks ago , the building trade takes the hit first.

[Scottie]

well what do yo all think now then.??

[AndyP & Lenore]

Good one Fi. Time this was rolled out again.:thumbs up:

From my perspective.... nothing different.

Almost every living cost and expense is higher now than it was when I first posted about this back in February. And fuel is just getting ridiculous.

But I have to say, I haven't noticed the media ramming it down our throats every 20 seconds, which was kind of my point when I first posted.

There's no doubt house sales are slowing, house prices are not rising, sometimes falling, and the cost of living is rising faster than anyone wants. But I still don't see a "recession" on the horizon.

Certainly, from our business point of view, summer so far has been quieter than last year, but there's no way the films can be compared. Shrek 3 and Harry Potter (both summer 2007) just doesn't stack up against Chronicles of Narnia and Kung Fu Panda (this summer so far). In fact, both these films I would class as middle range blockbusters, and to be fair, they have probably exceeded their projected take for us. Perhaps not Narnia, but KFP is waaaay busier than we expected. Don't want to turn the conversation into our business. But it is fair to say that if we were in a recession, entertainment is the first non-essential expense to stop, and it ain't happening.

A.:thumbs up:

[Scottie]

I thought about this thread on my road home tonight after work. I was listening to the news on real radio and they were going on about the inflation hike being at the highest since whatever year.

The mother they interviewed you know the "average family" was saying how with the cost of living being at highest they were having to cut back on meals out, trips with the kids to cinema etc etc and in general just tightening the belt a bit so they can keep meeting bills and affording the essentials with no problems.

The large builders are laying people off and closing down sites. Stephen's have stopped all work at Errol. I know the big builders head quarters in Larbert (can't remember their name) have paid most of their staff off.

Hopefully people will always require milk.:rolleyes: but I think things will get a lot worse before it gets better just need to wait and see. On a more positive report Hamleys think they will still have a bumper Christmas with kids toys sale.

[Sheilz]

The roads are a lot quieter too. I read in the Sunday paper that we are on average driving about 20% less than we would normally. I also think that more people have/ are staying home this summer due to rising costs.
Everyday costs are beginning to bite. I'm normally £40 monthly for electricity but have been told my new monthly payment is to be £75 though there is no obvious increase in usage. Scarily our main fuel source is gas. Heaven alone knows what that will be bumped up to. I did a tally of my fuel and sundry costs last month to see where I can tighten my budget. My fuel total came to just over £600. :eek:
Saw on the news some bampot in government pontificating that no one must expect wage increases to cover these costs which may be fine if you're on a generous salary like the git preaching but deeply offensive to those on the breadline already.

[stoney]

right ok i think i know what a Recession is but will some one tell me in stupid man terms please :thumbs up:


thanx thick stoney :blush:

[Smitty]

right ok i think i know what a Recession is but will some one tell me in stupid man terms please :thumbs up:


thanx thick stoney :blush:

This will tell you everything mate - Wiki - Recession (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession)

Basically we will be in a recession when the countries economy does not grow (or grows by a negative figure, i.e. reduces) for two successive quarters.

So basically as we spend less because the prices are going up, the more likely it is that a reccesion will happen.

That's my basic understanding of it anyway.

I've been following this "economic downfall" since the American housing market took a tumble last year and I have to say I agree with Andy, that the media are certainly making matters worse for everyone by scaring them.

As for it directly effecting me, well I'm not sure yet. Stepping out of the shoes of a student and going into the real world (come Septmeber), well I might have more of an idea just then. But for now I now that petrol IS NOT CHEAP :frown:

I've also realised that a lot of people are driving much slower, particulary on the motorways now, and my reckoning is to save fuel. I'm actually one of them and I never creep above 70mph anymore (not that I did before mind you ;))

[stoney]

i look at wiki but just confused me lol i now under stand tho


i know what you meen about petrol and slowing down i am the same

but then again i still go blasting round the back roads but not as offten

[Livi]

One option is to leave the country.


Im just waiting on my papers at the moment :thumbs up:


I cant moan enough at work that i now have 2 jobs to even make a decent living, i work all these hours just for the government to take more tax off me?

yes i dont mind paying my services (fire, police etc etc) but for the ones who dont do feck all in life and get everything paid for them, now thats just annoying, so now im working my double jobs for someone else's luxury! :argh:


Petrol, gas and all the others, which is just way overboard at the moment and at this moment in time, im actually paying to come to work! (minus petrol etc) but its not worth waking up in the morning.


i hope it all crashes and goes to feck :ragin:

[illegalhunter]

If you want to why we have Credit Crunch google "fractural reserve banking" another one of Thatchers wonderfull reforms

[N12 JLK]

I find that when I'm doing a food shop I'm actually trading down on some items and thinking do I actually need those items, we now find we throw out very little food as waste now which cant be a bad thing. In times like this it makes you think more carefully and I think I'm making better judgements.
We keep the Mini in the garage now for unessential runs and use my Jetta which isn't that bad as it cant get dirty and that cant be bad either its just a big 20k ornament:yes nod:, lovely better than that crappy Coldport figurines.

[Sheilz]

I took exception to Broon's war on food waste :nag:. As he's preaching to Joe Bloggs about the amount of food that the average family throws out he's flying jets to G8 costing the taxpayer £500,000 and sitting down to a nineteen course banquet that would make Billy Bunter weep with envy. Naw! That's just a load of p*sh :moonie: Blaming the consumer's just a cop out. He and his miserable bunch o cohorts ought to be pointing the finger at the food industry not the public :ragin:

[AndyP & Lenore]

If you want to why we have Credit Crunch google "fractural reserve banking" another one of Thatchers wonderfull reforms

Hang on... you're blaming Thatcher on this recent financial question mark?

[Sheilz]

Hang on... you're blaming Thatcher on this recent financial question mark?

You can blame Thatcher for almost everything that's wrong with this country today. She's blameworthy.

[illegalhunter]

Thatcher allowed the banks to go to Fractural reserve banking. This allows banksonly need to keep a tiny % of deposits. Then they lend multiples of money they dont have . Google the term

[Scottie]

is this a good time to bump the thread, or should I have waited until after the new year.

ukclosingdownsale (http://www.ukclosingdownsale.com/)
:laugh:

[N12 JLK]

Like that. h ehe he

[Scottie]

Like that. h ehe he

yeh it's good yin

Never mind we have next year to look forward to


'The public needs to display the same spirit as during the second world war and "rise to the challenge" of the crisis,":laugh::laugh:

[AndyP & Lenore]

Perhaps I should change the title from "What recession?" to "Oh dear, that'll be a recession then."

There's no doubt things have got a lot worse. And I think it would be insensitive to the employees of Woollies, Klick, MFI etc., etc, to continue suggesting nothing is wrong.

Worrying times ahead. Proceed with caution.:blush:

A.:sad:

[Smitty]

Lets look for the positives in this.....

At least we can fill our MINI's up for much cheaper now :D

Apart from that......i'm struggling to find good things! :frown: